Yeah, honestly, based on the LJ example and others before, the only way tumblr fandom will disappear overnight is if the whole site goes down entirely and permanently…
…which I don’t anticipate at this point based on the general level of stability (not great but not awful), the level of ongoing development (existing, like, at all), and what little I know of the company.
What I think we’re more likely to see is another few years of decent community fueled by other sites shitting the bed (twitter, I’m looking at you) and then another few of hold-outs complaining that tumblr isn’t popular anymore and wondering where everyone went.
Maybe 5 good years and 5+ bad ones if I had to pull a number out of my ass. (But, of course, it will depend on what other platforms are doing during that time, what new megafandoms form, etc.)
The smart fan will at least namesquat on other platforms before the end of the first of those phases and exchange some kind of non-tumblr contact info with tumblr friends.
There are fans who are still on LJ and really only on LJ today in 2023. There aren’t a lot of them, and I wonder what the hell they’re thinking, but as long as a site isn’t literally gone, there’s usually somebody who refuses to leave. There were still Yahoo Groups that were active when the site was deleted many, many, many years after it stopped being relevant.
I just think most people are happier if they at least keep feelers out so they don’t get caught by surprise when every friend’s contact info no longer works.
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